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Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OHIO...WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

CORRECTED OUTLOOK GRAPHICS

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may still increase in coverage and intensify across
and to the east of the lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley
vicinity this evening, acco*panied by a risk of potentially damaging
wind gusts.

...01Z Update...

...Near/east of the Lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley...
Pre-frontal thunderstorm development has been increasing across
southeastern Ontario, perhaps aided by strengthening forcing for
ascent downstream of a vigorous short wave impulse now beginning to
turn east of the upper Great Lakes region.  As this perturbation
progresses eastward this evening, there still appears potential for
renewed vigorous thunderstorm development to the southeast of Lakes
Erie and Ontario, while ongoing storms across Ontario tend to spread
into and east of the St. Lawrence Valley.  While the environment to
the lee of the lower Great Lakes has been substantially impacted by
prior convection, west-southwesterly low-level flow is forecast to
strengthen (in excess of 40 kt around 850 mb) in a belt across
northwestern Pennsylvania into northern New England this evening. 
As this occurs, downward mixing of momentum in stronger storms may
be acco*panied by occasional strong, potentially damaging surface
gusts.

..Kerr.. 07/25/2022