Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on
Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low is forecast to develop on Wednesday near
coastal NC/VA, within the trailing portion of an amplified and
positively tilted trough covering much of the eastern CONUS. A cold
front will continue moving southward across Deep South TX, the
northern/central Gulf of Mexico, and Florida. Elsewhere, a weakening
midlevel low initially over AZ will move northeastward as a
shortwave trough, as it beco*es absorbed in large-scale cyclonic
flow associated with a deepening mid/upper-level trough over the
western CONUS. 

Limited moisture/instability across most of the CONUS will limit the
organized severe-thunderstorm threat. Richer moisture in the
vicinity of the frontal zone will support thunderstorm potential
across Deep South TX, and also into parts of far south FL and the
Keys. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms will be
possible from eastern UT into western CO and vicinity, in
association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Multiple embedded
shortwaves within the amplifying large-scale trough may also support
weak convection with sporadic/isolated lightning flashes from
northeast CA into northern NV and the interior Northwest, and also
near the Pacific Northwest coast.

...Deep South Texas...
Deepening moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will result
in moderate destabilization across parts of Deep South TX,
especially in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Storms may develop
near the coast during the morning, with increasing storm coverage by
afternoon. MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg
range could support a couple strong storms within this regime.
However, with generally weak deep-layer flow/shear forecast across
the region, organized severe potential appears limited at this time.

...Far south FL and the Keys...
Limited frontal convergence and weak large-scale ascent will tend to
limit storm coverage in the vicinity of the front across parts of
FL. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible
across far south FL and the Keys, where deeper tropical moisture
will remain in place. Weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest
deep-layer shear will tend to limit storm intensity, but a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening.

..Dean.. 10/15/2024