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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Models suggest that initially consolidated large-scale mid-level
troughing, across the Pacific coast through the Rockies at the
outset of the period, will beco*e increasingly split while
continuing inland.  One notable embedded short wave trough is
forecast to continue pivoting across and north/northeast of the
Canadian Prairies, while a similar trailing perturbation amplifies
southeastward, near/east of the Sierra Nevada through southern Great
Basin/lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday.

It still appears that the primary and secondary surface cyclogenesis
will acco*pany the lead impulse into the higher latitudes of
interior Canada.  The trailing cold front may surge east of the
Canadian Prairies through much of northwestern Ontario by late
Thursday night, while stalling northwest of the upper Great Lakes
region through the northern Great Plains Red River Valley, and the
higher terrain of southern Wyoming/northern Colorado into the
southern Great Basin.

Downstream, beneath building mid-level ridging to the west of
confluent mid-level troughing east of the Appalachians into the
western Atlantic, the center of expansive cold surface ridging is
forecast to be maintained over the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians
vicinity.  This ridging appears likely to maintain a considerable
stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and
northern Gulf of Mexico.

...Pacific coast into Great Plains...
It still appears that relatively warm layers aloft and the lack of
sufficient low-level moisture return will preclude an appreciable
risk for thunderstorm activity near the lingering modestly deep
surface troughing/cold front across the northern Great Plains into
Front Range vicinity.  However, large-scale forcing for ascent and
cooling aloft probably will contribute to sufficient destabilization
to support scattered areas of weak thunderstorm activity from
portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and Rockies
Thursday through Thursday night.

..Kerr.. 10/15/2024