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Mesoscale Discussion 1582
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250032Z - 250230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of strong to severe outflow gusts could increase
across parts of eastern Colorado into the evening hours. Watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KPUX shows strong thunderstorm
outflow spreading northeastward from parts of southeastern CO, while
an additional convective cluster is developing eastward out of
east-central CO. Ahead of this activity, upper 80s/lower 90s
temperatures amid upper 50/lower 60s dewpoints are contributing to a
moderately unstable airmass. The GLD VWP shows deep easterly inflow
beneath modest westerly midlevel flow, resulting in nearly 30 kt of
effective shear and modest low-level hodograph curvature over the
eastern CO Plains. As the aforementioned outflow and cluster of
storms to the north intercept this environment, an uptick in strong
to severe gust potential will be possible -- especially with any
deeper/rotating updrafts that can develop and keep pace with the
outflow prior to being undercut.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37700331 37990381 38340400 38780389 39040365 39570281
            39630250 39470211 38930210 38450214 38100215 37940216
            37650229 37560291 37700331