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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Valid 131700Z - 141200Z

...17Z Update...
A minor areal extension was made to the Elevated area across OK to
include portions of southern KS. Observational trends in relative
humidity, along with the latest hires guidance, suggest a drop to
near or just below 20 percent will occur by early this afternoon
within this added region. Northerly wind speeds behind a cold front
are also expected to increase to around 15 to 20 mph later today. In
addition, fuels are highly receptive to fire spread across the
Plains. Please see the previous discussion for the Elevated area
across AZ and UT, where the forecast has not been adjusted.

..Barnes.. 10/13/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will transition to a closed low over
the northern Great Basin, providing some enhancement to the
mid-level flow and stronger southerly surface winds over portions of
northwestern Arizona into southern Utah. Dry/breezy post-frontal
flow in Oklahoma will also support Elevated fire-weather concerns. 

...Northwest Arizona into Utah...
The forecast has trended a little less dry, with relative humidity
values between 15-20% and 15-20 MPH winds. The strongest winds
(approaching 20 MPH sustained) will be confined to northwest
Arizona, where ERC values are on the lower end at the 80th annual
percentile and relative humidity is closer to 20%. Further north in
Utah, fuels vary between the 90th and 95th annual percentiles and
are colocated with <15% relative humidity values, but confidence in
winds exceeding sustained 15 MPH is lower. Given the overall spread
of moisture, wind speeds, and fuel percentiles over the area,
Elevated highlights have been maintained with no introduction of
Critical areas. 

...Oklahoma...
Forecast guidance has co*e into better agreement for 15-20% relative
humidity and 15 MPH winds during the afternoon as a cold front moves
southward across Oklahoma. Fuels guidance shows ERC values at or
exceeding the 98th annual percentile, supporting both wildfire
ignition and spread.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...