Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1577
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Areas affected...Front Range into the eastern Plains of Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242037Z - 242230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the Front Range of Colorado
will likely intensify through the day as they migrate east into the
Plains. These storms will pose a hail/wind threat, but a watch
issuance is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible imagery and surface observations show a
prominent lee cyclone near KDEN with towering cumulus along a
pronounced surface convergence zone/lee trough. To the west into the
higher terrain, thunderstorms are ongoing and are slowly drifting to
the east. A recent ACARs sounding out of KDEN sample around 1000
J/kg MLCAPE with minimal inhibition, which matches trends noted in
recent RAP mesoanalyses. This environment should foster further
intensification of developing and ongoing convection through the
afternoon. 30-35 knot westerly mid/upper-level winds were also noted
in the sounding, which when overlaid with southeasterly winds near
the surface, should support around 30-40 knots of effective bulk
shear east of the lee trough axis. Thunderstorms that migrate into
the plains later this afternoon may exhibit increasing storm
organization/intensity and pose a severe wind/hail threat,
especially if a more organized cluster can beco*e established and
propagate into the plains. 

In the near term, ambient vorticity in the vicinity of the surface
cyclone coupled with steep boundary-layer lapse rates and limited
inhibition may support a brief landspout, though confidence in this
potential is low. Overall, convective coverage and evolution east
into the plains and away from sources of ascent is uncertain, and a
watch is currently not anticipated.

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37640336 37370384 37330441 37410512 37870549 39310532
            40280550 40570488 40630321 40150290 37640336