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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 121700Z - 131200Z

...17Z Update...
The current forecast remains valid. A very narrow corridor of
Elevated fire weather conditions was considered for the Guadalupe
and northern Davis Mountains of TX. However, slowly decreasing wind
speeds throughout the afternoon should limit the overall fire spread
potential. Please see the previous discussion for additional
details.

..Barnes.. 10/12/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest, bringing
modest westerly flow across the Great Basin. East of the Rockies,
the mid-level flow is largely west-northwesterly owing to a
mid-level jet core moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairie
into the northern Great Plains. These flow features will provide
synoptic support for three separate Elevated fire-weather
highlights: One that extends from northwestern Arizona into southern
and central Utah (as well as portions of far eastern Nevada),
another extending from South Dakota into far northwest Kansas, and
lastly, a small area extending from the Permian Basin into western
North Texas. 

...Northwest Arizona into Utah...
Daytime heating (and subsequent boundary-layer mixing) will result
in 15 MPH winds (gusting to 20 MPH) and relative humidity values of
10-15%, overlapping with ERC fuels varying between the 80th and 95th
annual percentiles. Locally critical conditions will be possible
where topography supports enhanced surface winds. 

...South Dakota into Northwest Kansas...
Dry boundary-layer relative humidity of 15-20% and wind speeds of
15-20 MPH are expected in a post-frontal airmass progressing
southward across the Northern and Central Great Plains. These
conditions will overlap with ERC values at or exceeding the annual
98th percentiles, supporting wildfire ignition and spread. The
forecast has trended towards drier and windier in portions of
Nebraska and northwest Kansas, but the current forecast calls for
conditions to remain below the criteria for Critical highlights at
this time.
 
...West Texas...
Ahead of the southward-moving cold front, warm/dry southwesterly
flow is expected across much of West Texas. Recent forecast guidance
has increased confidence in 15-20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative
humidity values. However, the fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread
is relatively modest, especially where recent rainfall has occurred
in western North Texas. Still, a narrow corridor of overlap between
these meteorological conditions and 80th-90th ERC annual percentile
fuels exists, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...