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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low today.

...Discussion...
A highly amplified flow field will gradually evolve across the
northeastern Pacific and across Canada today and tonight.  Some of
this amplification will manifest as far south as the Great Lakes, as
an energetic short-wave trough digs southeastward across the
Canadian Prairie through the period.

As this trough digs, weak surface frontal-wave development is
expected along the pre-existing baroclinic zone expected to extend
westward across the Midwest states at the start of the period.  The
low is forecast to evolve across the northwestern Missouri area
initially, and then shift gradually eastward with time, reaching the
western Ohio vicinity late.  As the low progresses eastward, a cold
frontal surge southward across the central Plains is expected --
reaching the Ozarks/Oklahoma/the Texas South Plains area by Sunday
morning.

Along with showers and a few thunderstorms that may evolve over
southern Florida, elevated evening/overnight storms are expected to
develop over the southern Upper Great Lakes region.  This convection
is expected to shift eastward across the Lower Lakes/Upper Ohio
Valley area with time.  While small hail may occur with the stronger
storms, CAPE appears likely to remain insufficient to support
severe-caliber hailstones.

..Goss/Halbert.. 10/12/2024