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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will transition to a closed low over
the northern Great Basin on Sunday, providing some enhancement to
the mid-level flow and stronger southerly winds over portions of
northwestern Arizona into southern Utah. Dry/breezy pre-frontal flow
in Texas and post-frontal flow in Oklahoma may result in Elevated
fire-weather conditions as well. 

...Northwest Arizona into Utah...
15-20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are expected as
daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing occurs during the
afternoon, with some areas seeing locally critical conditions where
topography supports enhanced surface winds. These conditions will
overspread fuels modestly to very receptive to wildfire ignition and
spread, with ERC values between the 80th and 95th annual
percentiles.

...Central Texas...
Portions of central Texas may see Elevated fire-weather conditions
on Sunday, where warm/dry southwesterly flow ahead of a
southward-moving cold front will support at least 15 MPH winds with
boundary-layer relative humidity values between 10% and 20%.
However, these conditions don't currently overlap with especially
receptive fuels, and there is still uncertainty in the surface wind
speeds reaching sustained Elevated criteria. 

...Oklahoma...
Much of Oklahoma could also experience some Elevated fire-weather
conditions in a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass. However,
ensemble guidance indicates spread/uncertainty in both
boundary-layer relative humidity and wind speeds supporting wildfire
spread, and recent wetting rainfall has lessened fuel receptiveness
in portions of Central Oklahoma. Still, much of the fuels
surrounding the areas recently rained on have ERC values exceeding
the 95th annual percentile. If future forecast guidance co*es into
better agreement about the meteorological conditions, Elevated
highlights may be warranted.

..Halbert.. 10/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...