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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will dig into the Great Lakes and Upper
Midwest D3/Sunday, with an associated cold front progressing
southward down the Plains. Further west, a closed low will migrate
slowly east southeastward over the Great Basin under an upper ridge
through D5/Tuesday, as fairly deep troughing persists over the
eastern CONUS. By mid week, the pattern will begin to shift as a
north Pacific trough moves onshore and ridging replaces the trough
over the east. Rain chances will acco*pany the former feature from
the Pacific Northwest, perhaps as far south as northern CA, into the
Intermountain West through the end of the week.

...Plains into the Midwest...
Breezy post-frontal northerly winds are expected D3/Sunday from OK
northward, while west southwesterly winds increase across portions
of west TX and the Hill Country. Although localized elevated fire
weather conditions appear possible for these regions, particularly
across TX where pre-frontal warmer/drier conditions will be likely,
weaker northerly flow aloft under a subtropical ridge axis should
limit higher wind speed potential and the need for 40 percent
probabilities. Higher RH in the cooler post-frontal air mass further
north should keep most locations from dropping below critical
thresholds, although fuels remain highly receptive across the
northern Plains and upper Midwest. Dry southerly return flow by
D6/Wed and D7/Thu across the plains could eventually result in an
area of 40 percent Critical probabilities, although confidence in
the location(s) of the highest wind speeds overlapping with the
lowest RH is not quite high enough yet.

...Great Basin, Southwest, and Intermountain West...
Localized elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible
D3/Sunday across portions UT, NV, and AZ, as breezy southerly winds
develop during the afternoon in conjunction with RH dropping into
the teens. Then, as increasing mid to upper-level flow in the base
of the trough begins to overspread the region D6/Wed, increasing
surface wind speeds will beco*e more widespread preceding rainfall
chances. Subtle differences in the timing, magnitude, and position
of this trough, however, again leaves confidence too low to warrant
an inclusion of 40 percent probabilities at this time.

..Barnes.. 10/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...