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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast for Saturday remains valid. Unseasonably warm,
dry, and breezy conditions are still expected to develop over
portions of the southern Great Basin, where sustained surface wind
speeds near 15 to 20 mph will develop by early afternoon. Brief,
localized critical conditions due to slightly higher wind speeds
will be possible in and around the Escalante Desert. Further north
across the northern and central Great Plains within highly receptive
fuels, post-frontal northerly sustained winds will begin to increase
late in the morning with maximum speeds anticipated over northern NE
and west-central SD by late afternoon. However, confidence in both
critical wind speeds and relative humidity overlapping temporally 
within the cooler air mass remains too low to warrant a Critical
area.

A third area of interest Saturday may be across portions of west TX.
Westerly downslope flow, warm temperatures, and a deeply mixed
boundary layer will yield low teens to single-digit RH. However,
brief maximum sustained wind speeds around 15 mph (weak flow aloft)
preclude the need to introduce an Elevated area at this time.

..Barnes.. 10/11/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest will
result in modest mid-level westerly flow across the Great Basin,
while east of the Rockies, the flow is predominantly northwesterly
with a stronger jet core moving from Canada into the northern Great
Plains. These mid-level features are responsible for two separate
Elevated highlights on Saturday: one across much of western Utah
into far eastern Nevada and northern Arizona, and the other
stretching from far southern North Dakota/Western Montana into far
northwestern Kansas.

...Great Basin...
Daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing will result in relative
humidity values of 10-15% and surface wind speeds of 15-20 MPH.
While the threat for significant wildfire spread is low, these
conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, and dry/windy
conditions the preceding day that will contribute to additional
curing of fuels. 

...Northern and Central Great Plains...
Post-frontal dry/breezy conditions are expected across the northern
and central Great Plains, with the strongest winds (15-20 MPH)
expected further north into South Dakota closer to the mid-level jet
core. While the magnitude of surface winds further south remains
somewhat uncertain, much of the central and northern Great Plains
fuels have ERC values exceeding the annual 98th percentile. Given
the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights
were extended southward into Nebraska and northern Kansas where
winds could reach 15 MPH.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...