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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest and Ohio
Valley on Saturday, but the severe-thunderstorm potential is
currently expected to be low.

...Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to deepen on Saturday across
parts of the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes, as a
series of low-amplitude shortwaves move through the trough during
the day, and a stronger shortwave trough and related jet maximum
move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies by evening. A surface
low is forecast to develop along a front in the northern MO/IL
vicinity, and then move east-northeastward during the
afternoon/evening.  

Modest low-level moistening and cooling midlevel temperatures will
support the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy by
afternoon. In the absence of more robust moisture return, potential
for storm development across the warm sector is uncertain. Elevated
convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front,
within a low-level warm-advection regime. Deep-layer flow will be
sufficient for some storm organization, but uncertainties regarding
the potential for any surface-based development, as well as the
magnitude of buoyancy available for elevated convection, preclude
severe probabilities at this time. 

...South FL and the Keys...
Deeper tropical moisture is forecast to gradually spread northward
across the Keys and south FL Peninsula on Saturday. This will likely
be acco*panied by an increase in thunderstorm potential through the
day and into the evening. Modest midlevel southwesterly flow may
provide sufficient effective shear for some transient storm
organization, though weak lapse rates will tend to limit potential
for more robust updrafts.

..Dean.. 10/10/2024