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Mesoscale Discussion 2135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Areas affected...much of southern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 090945Z - 091315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The conditional risk of isolated tornadoes is expected to
generally increase this morning, especially after sunrise.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warming/moistening is noted on surface
observations over southern FL this morning, as a boundary moves
north toward a Miami to Naples line. Cells have generally languished
over land due to the relatively cooler air mass in place, however,
theta-e advection will continue to reduce that influence. 

Occasional supercells were noted off the western Peninsula, with
renewed development noted recently within a zone well offshore.
Radar also shows large-scale confluence bands/convection extending
from western Cuba and curling northwestward into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico ahead of Hurricane Milton. Additional bands such as these
could form farther east, and affect parts of southern FL later this
morning, and especially along the aforementioned baroclinic zone now
pushing north across far southern FL.

Shortly after sunrise, boundary-layer mixing will result in
destabilization for surface-based parcels, with 850 mb winds
increasing to over 30 kt. 0-1 SRH is already over 100 m2/s2, and
should generally approach the 150-200 m2/s2 range through the day.
This will result in a favorable environment for a few tornadic
supercells, given upper 70s F dewpoints and heating. 

As such, a watch may be considered closer to 12Z.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 10/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON   26998247 26978206 27028157 27068130 27228095 27368067
            27348015 26627990 25448010 24748055 24528135 24498204
            24708221 25218223 25528256 25758277 26138302 26618302
            26838286 26998247