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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern
Florida Peninsula on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A cyclone is forecast to begin the period over the upper St.
Lawrence Valley, with the cyclonic flow throughout the base of this
system extending across much of the eastern CONUS. Tropical Cyclone
Milton will be within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic
flow. Expectation is that a shortwave trough will move within the
base of the upper low across New England while Milton also ejects
quickly northeastward. This evolution will take the upper troughing
off the East Coast, although some troughing may linger across the
Southeast. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the
eastern CONUS, precluding thunderstorm development. The only
exception is across the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton. 

Farther west, the overall upper pattern is expected to
deamplify/trend more zonal as upper ridging initially extending from
the Southwest through the Upper Midwest dampens in response to a
shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces.
Within this ridging, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will likely
drift southward from the central Plains into OK. A few lightning
flashes are possible with the high-based convection associated with
this low-amplitude shortwave and related cold mid-level temperatures
across OK, but coverage is expected to be less than 10%.

...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton...
Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton as a
hurricane over the east-central FL Coast early Thursday morning
before the system then continues east-northeastward into the western
Atlantic while weakening. Given the expected early morning position,
wind fields will likely have veered across the peninsula. Even so
ample speed shear will exist, with enough low-level curvature still
in place to support rotation and a low-probability tornado risk
within any deeper, more persistent convection.

..Mosier.. 10/08/2024