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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast later this
afternoon into the evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western
New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. 
Damaging winds and large hail are the primary severe hazards.

...20Z Update...
Minor changes were made to the 15% wind probabilities in western New
York where the New York Mesonet indicated dewpoints reaching the
upper 50s F. Elsewhere the outlook remains unchanged. See the
previous discussion for additional information.

..Wendt.. 10/06/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024/

...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central
Appalachians...
Midday water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough
over Ontario and the Great Lakes.  A speed max initially over
northern WI/western U.P. of MI will quickly move east-southeast into
the Lower Great Lakes through early evening.  Strong, attendant
forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance will overspread
southwest Ontario into eastern OH by the mid-late afternoon. 
Coincidentally, a cold front over the Great Lakes will sweep
eastward.  A narrow plume of moisture will protrude northeastward
through the Upper OH Valley with surface dewpoints generally in the
mid to upper 50s.  Mid-level cooling associated with the trough will
act to steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates to around 7 deg C/km by
mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the cold front.  Forecast
soundings show generally 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon
and weakened convective inhibition.  The nose of the cyclonically
curved upper jet will nose into the region and contribute to
effective shear 35-50 kt.

The latest model guidance suggests convective initiation occurring
over the northeast OH vicinity between 20-22z.  This initial
development will likely be supercellular given the strong deep-layer
shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable
lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a
transition to a convective band featuring a mix of cells and linear
segments is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front.
As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should
quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern
OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly
narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with
the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less
unstable airmass in the central Appalachians.