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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO...AND THE
WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York/western
Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and the western Maryland Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level short-wave troughing is forecast to shift
east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and adjacent Ontario into
the Northeast today and tonight.  This trough will be acco*panied by
a surface cold front, advancing eastward/southeastward across these
same areas through the period.

Elsewhere, low-amplitude ridging will prevail across the central and
western U.S.  Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Milton should continue to
evolve/gradually strengthen across the western Gulf of Mexico
through the period.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes/central Appalachians...
Daytime heating ahead of an advancing cold front, co*bined with a
ribbon of low 60s dewpoints along the front extending from Lake
Ontario southwestward, will result in modest afternoon
destabilization (500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected).  As
the front advances ahead of the associated upper trough, the
thermodynamic environment should prove sufficient -- in tandem with
frontal forcing -- for thunderstorm development to occur. 

Moderately strong (50 to 60 kt) mid-level westerlies are forecast to
overspread the region through the day.  Given low-level
southwesterlies expected ahead of the front, this veering/increasing
flow with height will be sufficient to support organized/rotating
storms.  Initial cellular convection may thus beco*e supercellular
locally, with a tornado possible along with risk for large hail and
damaging wind gusts.  With time, storms should grow upscale into a
more linear frontal band, with damaging winds beco*ing the more
prevalent risk through late afternoon/early evening.

Later in the evening, as the front crosses the higher terrain,
convective intensity -- and associated severe potential -- should
diminish, given weaker instability expected east of the mountains.

..Goss/Karstens.. 10/06/2024