Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated
gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan
this evening and overnight.

...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes...
A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian
Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario
and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong
surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into
northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing
cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level
moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest
with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching
into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also
anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into
the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent
thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent
with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI.

Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the
cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally
tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg
range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few
stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist
initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level
lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should
quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern
WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary
layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an
isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given
the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow acco*panying the
upper trough.

..Bunting/Supinie.. 10/05/2024