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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty
winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan Saturday evening.

...Great Lakes...

A potent upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will
shift east on Saturday, beco*ing positioned over the Great Lakes by
Sunday morning. A strong 70+ kt southwesterly 500 mb jet will
overspread the Upper Midwest as the trough shifts east. Meanwhile,
cooling aloft will lead to a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
across WI/MI by late afternoon/evening. Low-level inhibition will
limit surface-based instability, but cool temperatures aloft and
increasing midlevel moisture will support MUCAPE values around
1500-2000 J/kg. 

A cold front extending south from a deepening low over Manitoba and
western Ontario will shift east across the Upper Midwest during the
day and into the evening, beco*ing oriented from central Lower MI to
northern OK by 12z Sunday. A warm advection regime ahead of the
upper trough, coupled with increasing instability and moderate
vertical shear will support thunderstorm development near the front
by late afternoon/early evening. A few organized cells may produce
strong gusts and marginal hail across parts of northern WI into the
U.P. of MI during the evening, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
has been included with the Day 2 update.

...Gulf Coast...

East to northeast low-level flow will persist over the Gulf, where a
very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place along the
coastal regions from TX eastward across Florida. Sufficient
instability will support thunderstorm potential, especially along
any sea breeze boundaries where low-level convergence will be
enhanced. Overall instability will remain modest, with poor lapse
rates forecast and limited vertical shear, precluding severe
thunderstorm concerns.

..Leitman.. 10/04/2024