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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Discussion...
A fast/progressive upper flow field will persist across the northern
third of the U.S. Friday, while ridging generally prevails over the
southern two-thirds of the country.  Once exception will be a weak
upper disturbance shifting out of the northern Gulf of Mexico, which
will partially phase with a northern-stream trough crossing the
Great Lakes region.  By the end of the period, this trough will
reach New England and the Atlantic Coast.

At the surface, a cold front will cross the northern Intermountain
region and eventually emerge into the northern Plains, ahead of a
trough embedded in the fast northern-stream flow field aloft. 
Otherwise, a rather nondescript surface pattern will prevail
elsewhere.

At low levels, tropical moisture will be confined to the Gulf and
Southeast Coasts.  Lesser moisture -- dewpoints in the upper 50s to
low 60s -- will extend northward across the Tennessee, Ohio,
Mid-Mississippi, and Mid Missouri Valleys, but weak lapse rates
aloft across these areas will yield only modest destabilization.

Greatest thunderstorm potential will extend from the Texas Coastal
Plain eastward across the Southeast -- aided by ascent associated
with the aforementioned southeastern U.S. upper disturbance phasing
with a northern-stream trough, and other vorticity maxima extending
westward across the Gulf and into northern Mexico.  Elevated showers
and a few thunderstorms will also be possible early in the period
over the northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa/northern Illinois
area.  In all of these locales, severe weather is not expected.

..Goss.. 10/03/2024