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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...MUCH OF IOWA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
One or two organized clusters of thunderstorms posing a risk for
damaging wind gusts may continue to impact parts of the Midwest into
lower Great Lakes region this evening into the overnight hours.

...01Z Update...
The environment has been significantly impacted by convective
outflow in an area centered from near/south of Chicago through
central Indiana and west central Ohio.  From near the southern Lower
Michigan state border into northern portions of Lower Michigan, the
air mass has not been impacted by convection (at least as much), but
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are weak.  With some
boundary-layer stabilization ongoing in response to the loss of
daytime heating, the extent to which the upstream mesoscale
convective system now crossing Lake Michigan will be maintained
remains unclear.  However, given its current strength/organization,
it may continue to be acco*panied by at least occasional strong to
severe wind gusts as it crosses lower Michigan this evening.

Farther upstream, another cluster of thunderstorms might still
develop this evening near the intersection of the surface cold front
and pre-frontal surface troughing extending southwestward into the
central Great Plains, roughly across northwestern Iowa.  In the
presence of steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, mixed-layer
CAPE remains moderately large near the boundary-layer intersection
east-southeastward along the front and preceding convective outflow
into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.  Near the southern
periphery of digging larger-scale mid-level troughing across
northwestern Ontario into the Upper Midwest, models suggest that a
40-50 kt westerly speed maximum (in the 850-500 mb layer)
overspreading this region may contribute to an environment
potentially conducive to the evolution of another organized
convective system with the potential to produce severe wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 07/24/2022