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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

Fire weather concerns are expected to persist into the weekend
across the north/northwestern CONUS with critical fire weather
conditions possible. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the
gradual building of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the
southern/southwestern CONUS through early next week. This will
maintain hot/dry conditions across much of the central and western
CONUS that should continue to promote drying fuels. Additionally,
this will maintain the strongest mid-level flow largely along the
U.S./Canadian border. Fire weather concerns will be possible across
the northern two-thirds of the country as shortwave troughs embedded
within the mean flow (and their associated surface lows/cold fronts)
propagate east along the international border. The most prominent of
these will likely impact the Pacific Northwest into the northern
Plains D4/Friday into D5/Saturday. 

...D3/Friday - Northern Great Basin and southern WY...
Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper disturbance along and
south of the Aleutian Islands. Long-range guidance continues to show
reasonably good agreement that this feature will undergo some
amplification as it approaches the Pacific Northwest by Friday
afternoon. The co*bination of surface pressure falls ahead of the
upper wave and increasing westerly flow over the southern Cascades
and northern Sierra Nevada will promote dry and windy conditions
across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID. 
Similarly, strengthening westerly winds across the northern Rockies
will induce a dry/windy downslope regime through the WY basin.
Ensemble guidance continues to show some spread regarding the exact
timing of the upper wave, which will influence the overlap of the
strongest mid-level winds with peak heating and precludes higher
risk probabilities at this time. 

...D5/Saturday - Southern WY into the central/northern Plains...
A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern
High Plains into the central Plains through D5/Saturday in tandem
with the passage of the upper-level trough. A regime similar to
yesterday (Monday) appears likely with dry conditions and only
modest temperature reductions behind the front acco*panied by very
strong (20-30 mph) winds. With no appreciable rainfall forecast for
the Plains through the weekend, fuels should remain receptive and
will support the fire weather concern. Confidence in reaching
critical-criteria RH reductions is highest across southern WY into
adjacent parts of NE/CO, but the coverage of sub-20% RH across much
of the Plains is somewhat uncertain at this range. Regardless, the
overall synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least a
wind-driven fire weather concern.

..Moore.. 10/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...