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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...

...Northern High Plains...
The primary change for this forecast update is to introduce a
Critical risk area to portions of northeast MT into northwestern ND.
Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in several
hours of sustained 20-25 mph with RH reductions into the low 20s and
possibly upper teens under the low-level thermal trough. Critical
conditions are possible further south along the High Plains into
western SD and far northwest NE, but recent high-res guidance
suggests such conditions may be more localized co*pared to areas
further north. 

...southern New Mexico and Arizona...
Breezy, 15-20 mph pressure gradient winds are expected across
southern NM into AZ tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure
builds along the southern High Plains. Unseasonably warm
temperatures will promote 15-20% RH values by late afternoon.
Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, but fuel status remains
somewhat uncertain with ERCs generally near the 50-60th percentile
based on recent fuel analyses.

..Moore.. 09/30/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/

...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, lee troughing will resume across Alberta, which will
result in a strengthening pressure gradient and another cold front
moving across the northern Rockies/northern Plains. Some dry and
breezy conditions are possible ahead of and behind this cold front.
Some drier/windier conditions are possible within the broader
Elevated area which extends from north-central Montana to far
northeast Colorado. However, confidence in where this may occur is
too low at this time to add a Critical delineation.

In addition, dry and breezy conditions are possible in
terrain-favored regions of southern Wyoming. Fuels are also
critically dry in this region and will dry further with dry and
breezy conditions Monday. An Elevated area has been added to address
this threat.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...