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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
A weakening shortwave trough will progress east over the Lower
Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over eastern NC to far southeast VA
during the afternoon before the trough departs. 

A more substantial upper-level trough will move across ON and the
northern Great Lakes. Ahead of the trough, a surface cold front will
march east across the central Great Lakes to the Lower OH Valley
during the afternoon. Surface dew points ahead of the cold front
should be in the low 60s, which will yield a plume of weak buoyancy.
Forecast soundings suggest relatively warm 700-mb temperatures will
inhibit thunderstorm development ahead of the front. But convergence
along it may be sufficient for surface-based thunderstorms across
parts of Lower MI into IN/OH during the afternoon. Weak low-level
winds and modest deep-layer shear, owing to stronger flow lagging
behind the front, should preclude severe storms. 

The greatest coverage of thunderstorms is most likely across the
central FL Peninsula as the moist air mass heats during the day and
sea breeze boundaries provide lift.

..Grams.. 09/29/2024