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Mesoscale Discussion 1565
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Areas affected...Far east Iowa to east-central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 231858Z - 232100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorms may develop along an outflow
boundary draped from far eastern Iowa into east-central Illinois.
Given the conditionally favorable environment, a watch issuance is
possible if additional storms appear likely.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar/surface trends show a few thunderstorms,
including a prominent supercell, to the north of a residual outflow
boundary from prior convection. Recent RAP mesoanalysis, forecast
soundings, and regional ACARs soundings suggest that elevated
instability lingers over the cold pool to the north of the boundary.
While surface conditions across much of northern IL remain cool with
temperatures in the 70s, areas immediately north of the boundary
have recovered somewhat with temperatures climbing into the low to
mid 80s. It is unclear if this recovery is sufficient to support
parcels originating from the boundary layer, but the probability of
boundary-layer rooted convection will likely increase through the
late afternoon as air mass recovery continues. Southeasterly
near-surface flow on the cool side of the boundary is supporting
enhanced low-level helicity, which will support a tornado threat if
convection can beco*e rooted in the boundary layer.

Regardless, an 18 UTC sounding from DVN sampled ample buoyancy from
the most-unstable parcel with limited MUCIN. Low to mid-level warm
advection will continue to support isentropic ascent over the
boundary, which will maintain the potential for additional elevated
storm development through the afternoon. Effective bulk shear
between 30-40 knots will support the potential for organized
supercells with an attendant risk for severe hail and perhaps severe
winds. Overall, convective coverage remains unclear, but conditions
will continue to be monitored through the afternoon for the need for
a watch issuance.

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/23/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40418916 40928988 41489056 41989065 42269029 42328993
            41888964 41278894 40868807 40378781 39868775 39608799
            39408849 39618882 40418916