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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
The mid/upper-level pattern features mean ridging over the West and
troughing in the East. The pattern is anchored by a large, nearly
stacked cyclone -- resulting from the co*bination of an antecedent
midlatitude low with the post-tropical remnants of Helene.  The
cyclone should remain centered over the lower Ohio Valley region,
drifting/wobbling erratically eastward over northern KY through the
period, while continuing to fill.  The strongest associated mid/
upper-level winds should remain mostly behind a low-level frontal
zone extending from the northern Gulf across northern FL to the
coastal Carolinas.  South of the boundary across parts of peninsular
FL, sufficient low-level moisture remains -- amid weak to negligible
MLCINH and a deep troposphere with modest but sufficient lapse rates
for convection.  This will support scattered thunderstorms today
over FL, with isolated thunderstorm potential over coastal areas of
GA/Carolinas near the boundary.  Dry midlevel air and lack of
greater flow/shear should keep severe potential too isolated and
disorganized for an outlook. 

Elsewhere, just east of the mean ridge and amid northerly flow very
peripheral to the cyclone, a patch of marginally favorable low/
middle-level moisture should co*bine with diurnal heating of higher
terrain over parts of northern NM and southern CO.  Scattered
showers are expected this afternoon, with isolated to widely
scattered convection extending above a mid/upper-level stable layer
and into icing regions suitable for lightning generation.  Isolated
thunderstorms also are possible amid weak but sufficient low-level
moisture and instability around parts of the eastern Great Lakes.

..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/28/2024