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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. General thunderstorms
are most likely over the Florida Peninsula during the day.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will fill as it moves slowly east across KY, with the
overall cyclonic regime extending from the lower Great Lakes to the
lower MS Valley. Southwesterly 500 mb winds of 40-60 kt will exist
across the Southeast, with an upper ridge from the Four Corners
states into the northern Plains. To the west, lowering heights will
exist over the Pacific Northwest as a strong shortwave trough pushes
into British Columbia, and a weak upper low affects parts of
southern CA late.

At the surface, weakening low pressure will exist beneath the
aforementioned upper low over KY, with only upper 50s to lower 60s F
dewpoints stretching across the Appalachians and Piedmont. A weak
boundary will exist from the northern Gulf of Mexico across northern
FL and along the coastal Carolinas and GA, where 70s F dewpoints
will reside. However, very dry midlevel air will exist over the same
areas.

...Southeast...
Thunderstorm chances look to be maximized over FL today, where
vertical profiles will be moist. MUCAPE averaging near 1500 J/kg
appears likely over much of the FL Peninsula with the aid of
heating. However, lift will be weak and unfocused. Still, the
uncapped air mass should yield scattered thunderstorms during the
day, possibly beginning early over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
moving ashore. Forecast soundings show weak winds aloft/shear, and
generally poor lapse rates with moist profiles. As such, only
general thunderstorms are anticipated.

..Jewell/Barnes.. 09/28/2024