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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low in the Tennessee/mid Ohio Valleys will make
little progress eastward on Sunday. This low will be weakening and
in the process of beco*ing and open wave during the period. Ridging
aloft will be the main feature in the Southwest into the Midwest,
while a strong upper-level trough will be present in the
Northwest/northern Rockies. At the surface, the pattern will beco*e
more disorganized beneath the upper low as that features weakens. A
front will remain along and just offshore of the eastern coastline.

Thunderstorms are possible from the Florida Peninsula into the
Carolinas and southern parts of Virginia. Some modest mid-level flow
enhancement will remain in parts of the Southeast and Carolinas. A
stronger storm or two could potentially develop in central/eastern
North Carolina as heating appears it could support around 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. However, weak lapse rates/warm temperatures aloft will keep
buoyancy generally limited and convection rather shallow. The
expected environment continues to suggest severe thunderstorm
potential is low. A few isolated lightning flashes may also occur in
central Utah as a weak upper-level shortwave moves into the Great
Basin. Coverage is expected to remain below 10%.

..Wendt.. 09/28/2024