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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A mature cyclone is forecast to be centered over the TN Valley early
Sunday morning. The cyclone is only forecast to make minimal
eastward progress throughout the period, remaining largely in place.
Farther west, expansive upper ridging is expected to extend from the
Southwest into the Upper MS Valley throughout much of the day. Some
dampening is possible along the northwest periphery of this ridge as
a shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward from southern British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan,
and the adjacent northern Rockies.  

At the surface, a low attendant to the TN Valley cyclone will remain
largely in place. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will surround this low,
covering the OH, TN, and Lower/Mid MS Valley as well as Southeast
States. Even with this low-level moisture in place, warm
temperatures aloft will prevent deep convection across most of these
area. The exception is from the Carolinas southward into the FL
Peninsula where models suggest this area may experience enough
heating to promote destabilization with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
forecast. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous, but
low-level convergence could still support isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms. Mid-level southwesterly winds will be
around 40-45 kt through the eastern periphery of the TN Valley
cyclone, and a few stronger storms are possible across the
Carolinas. Severe coverage is still expected to be less than 5%.

..Mosier.. 09/27/2024