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Topic: SPC Sep 27, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook (Read 16 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC Sep 27, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC Sep 27, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

[html]SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
     
Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level low across the lower Ohio Valley will continue to
weaken on Sunday. A stronger upper-level trough will move eastward
across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. At the
surface, weak southerly flow will bring some moisture northward into
parts of the Carolinas.

A few thunderstorms are possible from Florida into areas near the
Southeast Coast. Some drier air aloft is expected to move into
central/eastern North Carolina. Models suggest this area may
experience enough surface heating to promote around 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Though weakening with time, mid-level southwesterly winds
will be around 40-45 kts during the afternoon. A stronger storm or
two is possible. However, forcing will be nebulous and thermodynamic
profiles show continued warm-core system characteristics/influences
(i.e., weak lapse rates aloft, subsidence at upper levels). Updrafts
will likely struggle in these conditions and severe weather appears
unlikely at this time.

..Wendt.. 09/27/2024


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Source: SPC Sep 27, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html)