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Mesoscale Discussion 2122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...northern Florida into the Carolinas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 686...687...

Valid 270446Z - 270645Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 686, 687 continues.

SUMMARY...The environment remains conditionally favorable for
supercells producing tornadoes, primary over southeast Georgia into
South Carolina.

DISCUSSION...Unstable air continues to wrap northwestward ahead of
Helene, with the high theta-e air mass now inland across eastern SC
and GA. Very strong gusts continue into the Jacksonville FL area
within the well-mixed boundary layer where temperatures are in the
80s F. Dewpoints are also averaging 78- 80 F along the coast farther
north.

While severe cell coverage has decreased co*pared to a few hours
ago, conditions remain quite favorable for tornadoes should
additional bands of storms form. This is quite possible through
tonight as low-level flow remains confluent. In addition, the high
dewpoints will easily favor development with relatively minimal
lift. As such, the tornado watch will continue from GA into southern
NC for some time.  Areas to the south into central FL should
eventually see a waning threat as convergence weakens due to the
system pulling rapidly north.

..Jewell.. 09/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...MLB...GSP...TBW...JAX...
FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30798131 29768122 28258158 27838200 27628254 27748280
            28178285 28728277 29328280 29878249 30448244 30998268
            31528316 32148319 32758283 33418224 34238159 34678111
            34888007 34767914 34477855 33857838 33507889 33057918
            32557994 32148048 31728102 30798131