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Mesoscale Discussion 1561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern IL...northern/central
IN...and western OH

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487...488...

Valid 231228Z - 231400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487, 488
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph should
remain the primary severe threat as thunderstorms move
east-southeastward this morning.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection has congealed into an MCS this morning
across northern IN and far eastern IL. Two measured severe wind
gusts to 67 and 73 mph have recently been reported with this
activity, along with associated damage. Even though deep-layer shear
remains modest, current expectations are for this cluster to
continue moving east-southeastward across parts of northern/central
IN and western OH over the next couple of hours. The 12Z sounding
from ILN shows steep mid-level lapse rates and around 2800 J/kg of
MUCAPE. This substantial buoyancy also extends into central IN ahead
of the ongoing MCS per latest mesoanalysis estimates. Given the
linear nature of the convection and 5-6 mb per 2 hour surface
pressure rises observed behind it, scattered severe/damaging winds
will likely remain the primary severe threat in the short term as
low-level lapse rates continue to steepen with daytime heating.

..Gleason.. 07/23/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   40868784 41348652 41498559 41398472 40788392 39908419
            39918585 40478765 40868784