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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern
Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone
tornadoes will acco*pany this system, particularly from the central
Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands
and Low Country of South Carolina.

...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC...
Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center
has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225
miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is
forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend
vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves
northward throughout the day, the strong wind field acco*panying it
will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula
Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and
into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in
long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to
support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft
strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining
thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. 

Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL
Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading
northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves
northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped
convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk
will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading
northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is
anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the
strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late
afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and
overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across
coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday.

...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... 
A co*pact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern
Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong
large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a
convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into
the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level
flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to
strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger
storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of
damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%.

..Mosier.. 09/25/2024