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Topic: SPC Sep 25, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook (Read 12 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC Sep 25, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC Sep 25, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

[html]Day 4-8 Outlook
     
Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8
period. The upper cyclone over the Mid-South on Day 4/Sat slowly
weaken an meander east/northeast through Day 5/Sun. General upper
troughing over the eastern third of the CONUS will then be
reinforced by a shortwave trough developing east from the northern
Plains to the Northeast Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this shortwave trough
shifts east early next week, a surface cold front will sweep across
the Midwest. However, severe potential associated with this system
will be mitigated by weak instability and poor alignment of stronger
vertical shear. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will persist over the
Great Basin and portions of the Plains, with generally weak
deep-layer flow expected across these areas.


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Source: SPC Sep 25, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)