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Mesoscale Discussion 1559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Areas affected...Portions of southern ND into north-central/eastern
SD and far western MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 230902Z - 231130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to increase in coverage and
intensity over the next couple of hours, with a threat for both
large hail and severe wind gusts. Watch issuance may eventually be
needed.

DISCUSSION...A supercell has recently strengthened over
south-central ND. A 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet is feeding into
this thunderstorm and providing lift for additional convection
farther east across north-central SD. Deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt
is present over this region as strong southerly low-level winds veer
to westerly and strengthen further with height through mid/upper
levels. Isolated large hail will be the primary severe concern in
the short term with the ongoing supercell, as MUCAPE around
1000-2000 J/kg and the strong effective bulk shear supports
continued thunderstorm organization and intensity.

Over the next 2-3 hours, most high-resolution guidance suggests that
convection should grow upscale into a small bowing cluster as it
spreads east-southeastward across far southern ND,
north-central/eastern SD and eventually far western MN. This region
will lie along/near an MUCAPE gradient, with at least moderate
instability present along/south of a surface warm front.
Severe/damaging winds may beco*e an increasing concern towards
11-12Z if this mode transition occurs, especially with eastward
extent into SD where greater low-level moisture is present. Although
watch issuance does not appear likely in the short term (next hour
or so), it may eventually be needed if observational trends indicate
a greater severe wind threat developing.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 07/23/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45219985 45940110 46240123 46360033 46249762 45979579
            44579581 44449644 44579858 45219985