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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on
Wednesday.

...Southeast into the central Appalachians...

Forecast uncertainty is quite high for Day 3/Wed. The evolution of
the upper trough over the Upper Midwest/MS Valley early in the day
is varied across forecast guidance. A northern stream upper
shortwave trough will probably migrate across the Great Lakes. The
southern stream of this trough may develop a closed low over the
Mid-South into the lower OH/TN Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, the
tropical disturbance currently over the western Caribbean is likely
to develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday per latest NHC
guidance. The track of this feature is also uncertain and will be
influenced by the evolution of the aforementioned upper trough. Some
tropical cyclone related tornado risk could develop across the west
coast of FL, but given the high degree of uncertainty at this time,
will hold off on introducing a Marginal risk. 

Otherwise, a moist warm sector will exist across much of the Gulf
coast states into parts oft he central Appalachians as moderate
deep-layer south/southwesterly flow streams over the region.
Precipitation will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in
uncertainty in daytime destabilization across the region. Some
low-end severe thunderstorm potential may evolve, but uncertainty is
too great to include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 09/23/2024