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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong, to marginally severe, thunderstorms remain possible
this evening across southwest Texas.

...01z Update...

Upper low is gradually deamplifying as it beco*es positive tilted
over the central/southern High Plains region. This evolution has
contributed to a surging cold front that now extends from the
Ozarks-southeast OK-Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. The majority of
convection remains along the cool side of the boundary, but a few
storms are noted near/south of the wind shift. Surface temperatures
remain in the upper 80s to near 90F across southwest TX, but
mid-level lapse rates are modest at best, and this is likely
hampering updraft strength within an otherwise strongly sheared
environment. Additionally, very few severe wind gusts have been
reported with this activity, and hail will likely struggle to
achieve levels above 1 inch, except near the International border
near Sanderson. Overall, severe threat appears fairly low this
evening, but a few gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible.

..Darrow.. 09/23/2024