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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Forecast confidence is low during the Day 4-8 period as large spread
is evident across medium range forecast guidance. Some low-end
severe potential (sub-15 percent) may continue into Day 4/Tuesday
over parts of the OH/TN Valleys and adjacent Appalachians as a
surface cold front continue to progress east amid modest mid/upper
level southwesterly flow. Thereafter, guidance suggests a cut-off
upper low will develop over some part of the central section of the
CONUS, though confidence is the evolution of this feature is low.
Despite this uncertainty, severe potential appears low beyond Day
4/Tuesday given prior cold frontal passage and limited Gulf return
flow.