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Mesoscale Discussion 1557
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Areas affected...Portions of northwestern into north-central MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486...

Valid 230632Z - 230800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486
continues.

SUMMARY...Mainly a severe/damaging-wind threat continues in the
short term with a small bowing cluster across northwestern
Minnesota. These thunderstorms should weaken with eastward extent
into north-central Minnesota, and downstream watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...A small MCS has persisted as it moved from parts of
eastern ND into northwestern MN over the past couple of hours.
Multiple measured severe wind gusts have been noted with this
convection. Recent radar data from KMVX show enhanced (50-60+ kt)
outbound velocities occurring at low levels across northwestern MN
associated with the small bowing cluster. A threat for
severe/damaging winds will likely continue in a narrow corridor in
the short term across this area. Downstream observations into
north-central MN show a less unstable airmass, with surface
temperatures and dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low 60s.
06Z mesoanalysis shows a general lack of MLCAPE with eastward extent
across northern MN along with increasing MLCIN. Recent
high-resolution short-term guidance show a weakening trend will
likely occur with this MCS over the next couple of hours as it
encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. Latest radar
trends suggest this gradual weakening process is already occurring.
Therefore, downstream watch issuance is not expected at this time.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 07/23/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   47469655 47729651 48109654 48079528 47889398 47559380
            47029395 46849445 47179670 47469655