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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the Upper
Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Damaging winds with gusts over 75
miles per hour, a few tornadoes and large to very large hail will be
possible with the more intense storms.

...Upper Midwest/Southern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough, currently evident in water vapor imagery over
the northern Rockies, will move east-southeastward across the
northern Plains today. At the surface, a low and an associated cold
front will move southeastward from central South Dakota into the mid
Missouri Valley. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in
place from the mid Missouri Valley eastward into the southern Great
Lakes, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As the
trough approaches the northern Plains this morning, scattered
convective initiation should take place across the central Dakotas.
Convective coverage is expected to expand as a cluster organizes
into a line around midday. This line is forecast to move
east-southeastward across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa by
early afternoon, and then eastward across southern and central
Wisconsin during the mid to late afternoon.

RAP and NAM forecast soundings near the strongest instability in
southern Wisconsin at 21Z have MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg
range, with 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 knots. Directional shear is
evident at low levels with strong speed shear present at mid levels.
The RAP has lapse rates near 8.0 C/km throughout the forecast
sounding, suggesting that any line that can beco*e organized will
likely produce wind damage. The best potential for damaging winds,
including gusts above 70 knots, is forecast from southeast Minnesota
and northwest Iowa eastward across southern Wisconsin, near the axis
of strongest instability. Supercells that develop within the linear
MCS could also produce large hail, with hailstones greater than 2
inches in diameter possible. A few tornadoes may also occur with bow
echoes or rotating cells that form within the line.

The linear MCS is forecast to continue to move east-southeastward
into southern Lower Michigan by early evening. Although model
forecasts have a greater spread concerning instability in southern
Lower Michigan, it seems likely that moderate instability will be in
place. This should enable the linear MCS to remain severe as it
crosses southern Lower Michigan, where wind damage will be likely.

...Central Plains...
A cold front is forecast to move southward into the central Plains
by this afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are
forecast to be in the 60s F. This will contribute to narrow corridor
of moderate instability just ahead of the front by afternoon.
Thunderstorms that develop near the front during the afternoon will
move southeastward across southern and eastern Nebraska. These
storms should eventually affect parts of northern Kansas and far
northern Missouri. The moderate instability, co*bined with 0-6 km
shear near 30 knots and low-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km,
should be sufficient for isolated damaging wind gusts. Hail could
also occur with the stronger cells.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/23/2022