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Mesoscale Discussion 1550
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Areas affected...Parts of south-central NE and northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222208Z - 230015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for isolated severe
thunderstorm potential. The primary concerns are sporadic large hail
and locally severe gusts. A watch is not currently expected this
afternoon, though trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a deepening cumulus
field over western KS into southwest NE, and isolated convective
development is ongoing along the border. This convection is
developing in a deeply-mixed boundary layer with large
temperature/dewpoint spreads and steep midlevel lapse rates.
Generally weak large-scale ascent/minimal surface convergence along
with long/mostly straight hodographs (30-40 kt of effective bulk
shear) should favor a few discrete supercell structures capable of
sporadic large hail and locally severe gusts over parts of
south-central NE and northwest KS. With time, convection should
generally spread east-southeastward into richer boundary-layer
moisture (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) in southern NE, potentially
resulting in increasing convective intensity/coverage. Current
thinking is convective coverage may be too isolated for a watch,
though trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38980155 39940146 40670124 41510093 41680030 41719975
            41519931 40729895 39839906 38459946 38000000 38010121
            38260149 38980155