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Mesoscale Discussion 1549
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Areas affected...Northern Utah to southwest Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221905Z - 222100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will pose a strong to severe wind threat
this afternoon across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. This
threat will most likely remain too isolated/localized to necessitate
a watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...c*nsiderable cumulus build up has been noted from
northeast NV into southwest WY over the past hour, and recent
lightning trends confirm that convective initiation is underway.
Although buoyancy remains somewhat limited across the region per
recent mesoanalysis estimates and forecast soundings (near 250-500
J/kg MLCAPE), a recent ACARs sounding from SLC sampled the lowest 1
km of a very dry boundary-layer with steep near-surface lapse rates
and a dewpoint depression near 50 F. Similar dewpoint depressions
are noted in surface obs across much of northern UT and into
southwest WY with developing storms in the vicinity. Furthermore,
latest hi-res forecast soundings also support the idea of inverted-v
profiles across the region. Modest mid-level flow within the
CAPE-bearing layer may promote some storm organization, but this
should be sufficient to support strong to damaging downburst winds
given the favorable boundary-layer thermodynamics. Thunderstorm
coverage should remain isolated to widely scattered and negate the
need for a watch.

..Moore/Goss.. 07/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...LKN...

LAT...LON   39281312 39571398 39981429 40601431 41101384 41631263
            42951074 42930977 42640920 41970873 41190877 40620914
            39800944 39701028 39401155 39281312