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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough near the northern High Plains at 12Z Wednesday
should slow as it largely progresses across the southern Prairie
Provinces. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies should
linger over the northern Great Plains through Thursday, and aid in a
recharging and downstream advection of steep mid-level lapse rates
over the Dakotas and NE. The low-level moisture plume near the edge
of the EML should be confined, as dry conditions persist in the
Great Lakes region, on the backside of the low-amplitude mid-level
trough over the East. Low-probability severe may occur along a
portion of a weak cold front on Thursday in the north-central
states.

The next shortwave trough that amplifies into the Southwest should
remain positive tilt and slow moving, until around next weekend when
guidance consensus suggests it accelerates northeastward as another
shortwave trough digs into the Northwest. This pattern should yield
more muted mid-level lapse rates over most of the Great Plains,
especially into next weekend. As such, severe probabilities may
remain low through the period.