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Mesoscale Discussion 1548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Ohio to southern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221650Z - 221845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected in the co*ing hours,
and a few storms may intensify enough to pose a damaging wind risk.
This potential is expected to remain isolated, and a watch is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery continues to show building
cumulus across eastern OH to southern NY ahead of a broad surface
trough that is approaching from the west. Low-level water vapor
imagery reveals a few deeper towers developing in the vicinity of a
decaying MCV over southern NY/northern PA as well as across eastern
OH. A recent ACARs sounding from Buffalo, NY revealed minimal
inhibition, which supports trends noted in recent RAP mesoanalyses.
These trends, co*bined with the noted signatures in low-level water
vapor imagery, suggest that convective initiation appears likely in
the next 1-2 hours. Additional convection is expected to develop
through the early and mid afternoon hours.

As thunderstorms mature, 30-40 knot mid-level flow may support a few
organized cells and/or clusters. Poor mid-level lapse rates will
hinder the potential for severe hail, but steepening boundary-layer
lapse rates will support a damaging wind potential for the
afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will likely remain isolated to
widely scattered given the modest forcing for ascent, which appears
at this time to mitigate the need for a watch.

..Moore/Goss.. 07/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   40958196 41778017 42667768 42887654 42817534 42527463
            41797452 41147524 40387711 40117965 40008095 40028161
            40288204 40958196