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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN TO FOUR CORNERS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail will be
possible on Monday afternoon to early evening across parts of the
eastern Great Basin to Four Corners.

...Eastern Great Basin to the Four Corners...
An amplified closed mid/upper low over northern/central CA at 12Z
Monday should initially move east before curling northeast Monday
night towards the NV/UT/ID border area. This will occur in response
to a vigorous mid-level jet translating through the basal portion of
the large-scale trough across the Desert Southwest into the eastern
Great Basin. Surface cyclogenesis should be induced near the UT/NV
border area, with a predominant meridional deep-layer flow regime
near/just ahead of the low. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should develop as modest steepening of mid-level lapse rates
overspreads a deepening boundary layer during the afternoon. The
strengthening synoptic flow regime coupled with inverted-v
thermodynamic profiles west of the Wasatch Range may yield sporadic
severe gusts with low-topped, high-based convection. 

Farther southeast towards the Four Corners, a more southwesterly mid
to upper-flow regime should yield hodograph elongation,
conditionally supporting splitting supercells. Warmer mid-level
temperatures and correspondingly weaker lapse rates should temper
parcel acceleration to an extent, but this may be offset by somewhat
higher PW values. Marginally severe hail/gusts will be possible. 

...c*astal Carolinas...
Guidance has trended towards a greater signal for offshore
subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis by Monday. Still, spread is
quite large with the degree of amplification as NCEP guidance
appears to be on the aggressive spectrum relative to non-NCEP
models. With timing and spatial differences also large, will defer
on a potential tornado threat highlight.

..Grams.. 09/14/2024