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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be
possible in parts of northern Nebraska and west-central South
Dakota.

...Northern Nebraska/West-central South Dakota...
A shortwave trough will move northeastward across the northern and
central High Plains today. At the surface, a trough will develop in
the northern High Plains, with the western edge of a moist airmass
located in the western Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm today
within this airmass, a narrow corridor of moderate instability is
expected to develop from northwestern Nebraska into western South
Dakota. Thunderstorms will be possible near and to the east of this
axis of instability during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at
21Z at Pierre, South Dakota have MLCAPE near 800 J/kg, with 0-3 km
lapse rates between 8.5 and 9 C/km, and 0-6 km shear around 30
knots. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat near peak
heating. The strongest of cells could produce isolated severe wind
gusts and hail.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/14/2024