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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Discussion...
At least isolated thunderstorm potential is evident across a larger
portion of the CONUS on D3, but the threat for organized severe
storms remains negligible.

A blocking upper pattern will hold in the East, with a stout
mid-level anticyclone over the Lower Great Lakes and the remnants of
post-TC Francine anchored in the Lower MS Valley. A strong mid/upper
jet approaching the Pacific Coast will amplify a closed mid/upper
low over northern/central CA by Monday morning. Strengthening
large-scale ascent downstream may yield a broadening swath of
low-probability thunderstorm potential in the West with only
scant/meager buoyancy north of AZ. Afternoon buoyancy should be
largest across parts of the central High to northern Great Plains.
This could support a few strong, sub-severe storms around to just
after peak heating, amid weak/modest deep-layer shear and a benign
synoptic pattern.

..Grams.. 09/13/2024