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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

The primary changes made to the outlook were to adjust the Elevated
area to reflect the latest high-resolution model guidance consensus.
High-end Elevated conditions are expected across the southern High
Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, with 10-20 percent RH
overlapping 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds for at least
a few hours during the afternoon. At least locally Critical
conditions may acco*pany downslope flow along the lee of the Rockies
in New Mexico and Colorado by afternoon peak heating. Should
guidance consensus depict more widespread Critical conditions beyond
the lee of the Rockies, Critical highlights may be introduced given
the presence of critically dry fuels.

Dry conditions are also expected across the central Appalachians
into the Mid Atlantic tomorrow, coincident with a meandering surface
high. Multiple guidance members show RH dipping to 20-30 percent by
mid-afternoon. However, the lower RH is likely in closer proximity
to the surface high center, where winds are expected to remain
generally below 15 mph on a widespread basis. When taking recent
rainfall into account, Elevated highlights have been withheld this
outlook, though localized wildfire-spread concerns remain.

..Squitieri.. 04/14/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022/

...Synopsis...
Zonal flow across the southwestern and central US will persist, but
weaken Friday as mid-level heights rise ahead of a subtle mid-level
ridge. A weak lee low over the TX Panhandle will bolster low-level
southwesterly flow across portions of the southern High Plains ahead
of a cold front sliding south through Kansas. The dry and breezy
conditions will support a few hours of Elevated fire weather
potential across the southern High Plains Friday. 

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Dry and breezy conditions should continue Friday with westerly
downslope flow across portions of eastern NM and west TX. Surface
winds are again expected to be relatively modest as flow aloft
weakens in response to the subtle sub-tropical ridge. Somewhat
stronger winds (15-20 mph) may develop within proximity to the weak
lee cyclone over the western TX Panhandle, but with relatively
limited duration. Warming surface temperatures and continued
downsloping will however support an extremely dry airmass with low
single digit RH values like across much of the southern High Plains.
Given the crisis state of fuels across much of the region, Elevated
to locally Critical conditions are expected for a few hours despite
the weak winds. The highest confidence in near-Critical conditions
is expected across parts of eastern NM where winds maybe somewhat
stronger (15-20+ mph) supporting a locally greater fire weather
threat.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...