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Mesoscale Discussion 2061
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Areas affected...Parts of central into south AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 121940Z - 122215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some tornado threat could evolve this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Persistent cloudiness has thus far limited
destabilization north of a warm front draped across south AL.
However, some modest destabilization (with MLCAPE approaching or
exceeding 500 J/kg) will be possible from south to north this
afternoon as the warm front moves slowly northward. One persistent
cell is ongoing northeast of Montgomery, and additional low-topped
supercell development will be possible along/north of the warm front
through the afternoon. 

Stronger low-level flow/shear will gradually shift northward in
conjunction with the warm front through the afternoon, but will
generally remain favorable, with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 150-300
m2/s2 range in areas where modest destabilization is possible. Some
tornado threat could evolve with time this afternoon, contingent on
the development of additional low-topped supercells. Observational
trends will be monitored regarding the need for a Tornado Watch.

..Dean/Guyer.. 09/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   32018746 32638764 33078779 33918793 33548696 33218620
            32888563 32598540 32088512 31848518 31718528 31708551
            31768600 31858669 31958717 32018746