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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0808 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A broad upper cyclone will move east over southern Canada during
much of the Day 4-8 time frame as upper-level high pressure extends
across the south-central and southeast U.S.  A cold front will move
east across the northeast U.S. on Monday/Day 4 acco*panied by some
risk for strong/severe storms.  At least low severe probabilities
may eventually be warranted as frontal location/timing uncertainties
are resolved. As the cold front moves offshore across New England
late Monday, the western portion of the front will extend from the
mid-Atlantic west across the OH/TN Valley region and central Plains
on Tuesday/Day 5 and Wednesday/Day 6.  Thunderstorms will be
possible in the vicinity of the front each day, however variability
regarding the overlap of favorable shear/instability remains too
great to delineate daily severe risk areas/probabilities.  By Day
7/8, the upper low sharpens over Ontario Province south across the
Great Lakes/northeast states, resulting in stronger mid-level flow
from the OH/TN Valley region into the northeast.  Although daily
predictability remains low at this extended range, some severe
threat may ultimately exist in these areas in the vicinity of a
surface cold front.