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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

A potent upper-level trough will move through the Northwest and into
the Great Basin by midweek. This trough will then lift northeastward
with time before moving into the Canadian Prairie this co*ing
weekend. Strong surface winds are expected along with and ahead of
the trough as the surface pressure gradient increases in response.
TC Francine will increase surface winds across parts of the
Southeast/Mid-South where dry fuels exist. Another amplified upper
trough is forecast to move into the West Coast by late this weekend
into next week. Details of where dry/windy conditions will be or
what mid-level moisture will be present remain uncertain at this
time.

...Great Basin...
A broad area of the Basin will likely experience critical fire
weather on Wednesday. A deepening surface low/trough in parts of the
eastern Basin will drive 15-25 mph winds over much of Nevada into
western Utah. The mid-level jet will approach the northern Sierra
and be roughly perpendicular to the terrain. At least a brief period
of winds 25+ mph will be possible along with potentially intense
wind gusts. RH in northwest Nevada will tend to see some improvement
through the afternoon into the evening, but this is not expected to
be significant enough to mitigate large fire potential.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Fire weather concerns in parts of the Plains/High Plains will
increase beginning Wednesday as the trough approaches and a surface
low deepens first in eastern Montana and moving northward into the
Canadian Prairie on Thursday. A lee trough will extend into the
central High Plains. With preceding dry and windy days, fine fuels
will continue to dry ahead of the increase in winds. Furthermore, it
seems more likely than not that moisture return northward will be
more limited than some guidance suggests (namely the ECMWF)
especially with the stronger offshore winds developing around TC
Francine. Winds will be stronger on Thursday given a stronger 850 mb
jet that will last through the day. One point of uncertainty will be
potential for storms to develop in the lee trough on Wednesday. That
activity still appears to be quite isolated and should not have
significant impact. Critical probabilities may need to be increased
on Thursday depending on trends in guidance and updated fuel
information.

...Mid-South...
As TC Francine moves north and east, the surface pressure gradient
inland should increase ahead of the cyclone. There is potential for
at least locally elevated conditions in parts of the Mid-South on
Wednesday as fuels in the region remain quite dry per latest ERC
data. High cloud cover limits overall confidence in duration and
magnitude of these conditions, however.

...Northern California...
As the upper-level trough moves through the Great Basin, strong
mid-level flow on the western flank of the trough will overspread
northern California on Thursday. Additionally, surface high pressure
will briefly build into the Northwest. Some north/northeasterly
downslope winds are possible leading to some potentially locally
elevated fire weather. The mid-level winds will be in the process of
weakening through the day. Given the marginal conditions and likely
limited duration, no highlights will be added.

..Wendt.. 09/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...